What is Technical Analysis

While a crystal ball does not exist that will enable an investor to always pick the best stocks and securities in which to invest, there are various methods in which to analyze investments to increase the odds of success. The three most often discussed are:

  • Quantitative Analysis – uses specific numbers, ratios and equations to apply filters as to what is within the expected ranges
  • Fundamental Analysis – a study of the business itself including its value, income, growth potential and quality
  • Technical Analysis – the analysis of past trends and volumes to forecast future price trends; using statistics to spot patterns

Investors tend to choose an analysis method that they understand best and that continues to provide satisfactory results. That is not to say that an investor won’t change methods or even use a hybrid method combining aspects of different methods.

The first step is to understand the different methods thoroughly so let’s concentrate for the time being on the last one. So, what is technical analysis? Let’s look at some of the key elements of technical analysis:

  • Trends – Using graphs is a popular way to review trends, especially price trends. Practically all stock market research websites will give a detailed graph of historical prices that can be reviewed for a specific period of time – including one day, one month, 6 months, 1 year and 5 years. An analysis of these graphs will indicate at what times the stock experienced uptrends, downtrends or horizontal trends. You can then look at what may have caused a specific activity so that you can time your purchase or exit accordingly.
  • Support and Resistance – This is determining from historical information the highest and lowest price levels that have occurred. Being aware of these points will enable the investor to avoid those points in which volatility is greatest.
  • Volume – Volume is very useful in confirming what you are finding with the trend analysis as volume should move in the same way as the trend – upward trend, more volume; downward trend, less volume. If it does not, which is called divergence, then it could indicate the trend is starting to end.

There are a number of methods investors can use to analyze patterns. There are various moving averages that can be used such as Linear Weighted Average, Exponential Moving Average, and Simple Moving Average.  By analyzing averages and indicators, one can have more confidence not only in choosing stocks but also in developing a plan for when to buy and when to sell them. The stock market will always be a bit of a gamble but using good solid investment analysis can make a big difference.